Choosing Moving Average Periods Without Curve-Fitting
Curve-fitting begins when a period is chosen because it would have caught a memorable move. A healthier starting point is the question: how long do I typically intend to stay in a trend trade?
Once that horizon is clear, averages become filters for noise below that scale rather than magic numbers. We encourage students to test a small cluster of related periods and document behaviour across quiet and volatile months.
If a small change in period flips the system from profitable to chaotic on the same sample, the design is too fragile for live use—regardless of how elegant the chart looks.